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The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate! International oil prices ushered in the "blood assist" WTI crude oil rose more than 4%.
The plunge in cost crude oil led to PX prices falling, and cost support weakened. Although it closed down for nearly two consecutive weeks, last week was the largest weekly decline since March this year. However, in the case of a sudden escalation of the situation in the Middle East, international oil prices may usher in a "blood assist", and oil prices are likely to fluctuate significantly in the fourth quarter.
On October 8, the PTA spot price closed to 5933 yuan/ton (6245 yuan/ton on September 28, -312 yuan/ton), and the spot average basis closed to 2401+30 (2401+22, +7 yuan/ton on September 28).
The start-up of PX plants is relatively stable, and the maintenance of domestic PTA plants is implemented, which is expected to affect the monthly output of PTA of about 215,000 tons. Guangdong 2.6 million tons of PX plants slightly down; Yisheng New Material phase I 3.6 million tons PTA plant stopped on October 3, is expected to resume on October 9; Yisheng 2.25 million tons PTA plant fell to 5% before the holiday, and has now recovered; Hengli 2 line 2.2 million tons of PTA equipment on October 7 scheduled maintenance for about 2 weeks, a set of 1.5 million tons of equipment in Taiwan, China, scheduled maintenance on October 1, is expected to be around 3 weeks of maintenance.
PTA starts slipped to 77.39%, down 5.69% from 83.08% before the holiday. On the demand side, polyester started 86.87% on October 7, slightly higher than 86.21% before the festival.
Mid-Autumn Festival - National Day holiday polyester production and sales as a whole light, downstream consumption before the holiday stock mainly. The polyester market load is 89%, the production and sales are flat during the festival, the inventory or increase by 6-7 days, and the absolute inventory days are OK. Part of the terminal factory is on holiday, and the current Jiangzhe loom has recovered to 73%, and the order has been differentiated.
From January to August, the cumulative export of textile and apparel was 19.765 billion US dollars, down 10.4% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative value of textile exports fell by 11.4%, and the value of clothing exports fell by 9.4%. Four categories of commodity exports all fell, home textiles and woven clothing fell relatively small, respectively, 3% and 9.6%, of which the intermediate yarn and fabric fell significantly, respectively, 11.3% and 11.5%, intermediate products pulled down the overall textile and clothing exports.
In October, the weather slowly turned cool, the textile market also showed a cold, Jin Jiu orders did not have a peak season performance, textile enterprises continued to operate pressure, on the one hand, the cost pressure is high, on the other hand, the downstream demand is insufficient, orders are weaker than expected, textile enterprises face capital and loss pressure, negative production is also a routine operation, and due to the grey cloth market price difficulties, chemical fiber enterprises are squeezed at both ends, The price rise of yarn obviously lags behind the raw materials, coupled with the industry bidding phenomenon intensified, small and medium-sized textile enterprises are difficult.
How to transform traditional industries?
Under the new economic situation, cities in the Yangtze River Delta are faced with the challenge of transforming traditional industries and vigorously cultivating high-tech industries. Many traditional industries are heavily polluting, rely on cheap labor, are not strong growth drivers, and occupy a lower position in the global industrial value chain. To meet the new growth challenges, we must not only "free the cage and change the bird" to make room for high-tech industries, but also "digital intelligence" to transform traditional industries themselves, reduce carbon and increase energy, and find new growth points in traditional industries.